transcurrents Presidential Elections 2010 19 January 2010 134 views No Comment  Print This Post  Email This Post

2010-01-19 16:52:28

by Vasantha Rajah

Some Sri Lankan leftists naively argue that a Fonseka-victory will lead to a fascist dictatorship. They even dogmatically draw historical parallels from world history to justify their claim and defend their sectarian politics. A sober analysis of Sri Lanka’s concrete context, however, tells a different story. Let me explain:

If Sarath Fonseka became Sri Lanka’s next executive president there’s no way he could cling on to his powers even if he wanted to; for, all political parties in parliament – including Mahinda Rajapaksa’s SLFP – will have a vested interest in getting the presidential powers abolished, and the parliament’s powers restored.

Therefore, obtaining the hitherto illusory two-third majority in parliament will at last become a reality if SF wins this election.

[Needless to explain how crucial it is to change the Executive Presidency as the first step towards Sri Lanka's democratic transformation. Preventing General Fonseka's victory at this juncture would be a costly mistake of all those shortsighted 'progressives' who're too blind to see any difference between the two.]

But would Fonseka be able to use extra-parliamentary methods to impose a dictatorship? I don’t think so. He has no organized social power-base of his own to mobilize around him. This election is bound to leave highly agitated, self-confident and politically smart social forces within which Fonseka has not cultivated deep roots. Even the political establishment – including the military – will be deeply divided with unpredictable repercussions. Under such circumstances, there’s no way Sarath Fonseka could bypass the parliament in order to consolidate his powers.

If, on the contrary, Mahinda Rajapaksa managed to retain power – probably as a result of his Mafia tactics – the consequences would be vastly different. The executive presidency – in other words, Sri Lanka’s constitutional dictatorship – will continue to thrive with the backing of Rajapaksa’s expanding underworld gang. His Mafia-Regime will reach new heights in its effort to try and crush the politically smart democratic forces that are unlikely to accept the results of a widely rigged election in silence. However, none of this is unlikely to prick the conscience of so-called intellectuals and artists who blindly support MR.

Read more / the original here:
http://transcurrents.com/tc/2010/01/if_mahinda_manages_to_retain_p.html

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