2010-01-07 16:13:14

Polling map from last time (see old post)

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I have asked around and I can find no proper polls. Certainly none with much of a source. One big monkey in the wrench is that there are now thousands more in the North and East who will vote. Possibly two million, but certainly more than the 36% who voted last time. This changes the dynamic a lot. This is on Hypothetical Analysis (Word) on what could happen. Is very hypothetical, but looks competitive.

Actually, nevermind, I think the document is from Parliament somehow. These are two forecasts, both looking quite close. I have edited these tables to fit. For full, please look at the document.

Major Ethnic Groups	Valid Votes		MR		SF
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Sinhalese	8,424,360	99.0%	4,633,398	55.0%	3,731,991	44.3%
SL Tamils	868,198	98.9%	182,322	21.0%	607,738	70.0%
Muslims	1,039,375	99.0%	291,025	28.0%	744,193	71.6%
Ind. Tamils	618,859	98.8%	326,138	52.7%	290,864	47.0%
Others	33,090	99.2%	12,905	39.0%	19,854	60.0%
TOTAL	10,983,881	99.0%	5,445,788	49.58%	5,394,640	49.11%

By race

District	Valid Votes		MR		SF
	#	%	#	%	#	%
Colombo	1,205,308	99.0%	543,594	45.10%	650,867	54.00%
Gampaha	1,167,775	99.0%	595,565	51.00%	564,036	48.30%
Kalutara	652,132	99.0%	340,413	52.20%	309,762	47.50%
Mahanuwara	762,254	98.8%	369,693	48.50%	386,463	50.70%
Matale	267,201	98.7%	138,945	52.00%	126,386	47.30%
Nuwaraeliya	360,590	98.6%	172,001	47.70%	185,704	51.50%
Galle	619,066	99.1%	306,438	49.50%	308,914	49.90%
Matara	465,124	99.2%	243,260	52.30%	218,608	47.00%
Hambantota	342,264	99.1%	187,561	54.80%	152,308	44.50%
Jaffna	463,257	98.8%	60,223	13.00%	347,443	75.00%
Vanni	181,818	98.7%	50,909	28.00%	120,000	66.00%
Batticaloa	247,230	98.8%	111,254	45.00%	131,032	53.00%
Digamadulla	324,969	99.0%	147,211	45.30%	175,483	54.00%
Trincomalee	181,062	98.8%	63,372	35.00%	115,880	64.00%
Kurunegala	938,397	99.1%	495,474	52.80%	436,355	46.50%
Puttalam	387,589	99.0%	186,818	48.20%	197,670	51.00%
Anuradhapura	452,582	98.9%	229,007	50.60%	220,408	48.70%
Polonnaruwa	225,029	99.1%	115,890	51.50%	107,114	47.60%
Badulla	459,081	98.6%	241,017	52.50%	214,391	46.70%
Moneragala	241,085	99.0%	140,070	58.10%	98,845	41.00%
Ratnapura	604,272	99.1%	312,409	51.70%	287,029	47.50%
Kegalle	492,317	99.0%	250,589	50.90%	238,281	48.40%
TOTAL	11,040,403	99.0%	5,301,713	48.02%	5,592,977	50.66%

By district

Forecast	Registered Voters	Valid		MR		SF
		Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Forecast I	14,088,500	10,983,881	99.00%	5,445,788	49.58%	5,394,640	49.11%
Forecast II		11,040,403	99.00%	5,301,713	48.02%	5,592,977	50.66%
Conclusion	14,088,500	11,012,142	98.97%	5,373,751	48.30%	5,493,809	49.37%

In sum

Read more / the original here:
http://indi.ca/2010/01/election-predictions/

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